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Cubs should stop pretending they're contendersBaseball Betting Lines07/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been a typical summer along the North Side of Chicago. The sun is shining, the bleachers and rooftops that surround the incomparable Wrigley Field are packed to the gills, and the beer pours endlessly from the watering holes neighboring one of the grand spectacles in all of baseball. October's going to have a familiar feeling for Cubs fans as well, with their beloved and star-crossed club in the midst of yet another season of unmet expectations. After losing three of four games to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, Chicago limps into the All-Star break with a 39-50 record completely unfitting of a team carrying the highest payroll in the National League. This current outfit, now 9 1/2 games back of the resurgent Cincinnati Reds for first place in the NL Central, also bears little resemblance to the budding juggernaut that won a league-best 97 times during the 2008 regular season. It hasn't even been able to match the (under) achievements of last year's toxic group that went 83-79 as the prohibitive favorites to repeat as division champs. A lack of clubhouse chemistry helped sabotage the 2009 squad, and this year's Cubs have yet to find the right combination as well even after weeding out the bad seeds -- namely combustible outfielder Milton Bradley -- during an offseason house cleaning. Chicago has looked both lifeless and in decline for the better part of the past 2 1/2 months, either too old or too disinterested to make the run necessary to challenge the Reds and St. Louis for division supremacy. Even manager Lou Piniella, renowned for his intensity and passion to succeed, seems to have lost some of his trademark fire. Makes you wonder if the longtime skipper, who's in the final year of his contract, is ready to trade in the grueling road trips and draining summer days of July and August for the golf courses and shuffleboard tables many soon-to-be 67-year-olds are enjoying these days. Piniella may not be the only member of the organization with numbered days. This season's performance has clearly put much-maligned general manager Jim Hendry's fanny on the hot seat, especially since he wasn't hired by first-year owner Tom Ricketts, while a host of high-priced veterans could be jettisoned by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline if the new regime chooses to slash payroll and commit to a more youth-oriented movement. For what it's worth, Ricketts did issue a public declaration of confidence for his GM last week, just as the record should show that Hendry's two main offseason moves have each paid off handsomely so far. He unloaded the controversial Bradley to Seattle in exchange for pitcher Carlos Silva, who's emerged as the club's most dependable starter, while free-agent acquisition Marlon Byrd ranks among the NL's leading hitters and garnered his first career All-Star selection with a terrific first half. "I'm not going to assign blame to anyone or anything," Ricketts recently stated. "The fact is when we came into the season, we had what appeared to be a pretty strong lineup. It hasn't worked out for whatever reason." Ricketts has a point. A powerful Chicago offense that topped the NL in runs scored during the 2008 campaign no longer strikes fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers, even with several core players still on the roster. The Cubs entered the break 14th in the Senior Circuit in scoring and 13th in on- base percentage, and were shut out for the sixth time in the past 22 games after a 7-0 setback to the Dodgers on Sunday. While the decision to become sellers should be an easy one, unloading some of Chicago's pricey players figures to be a greater challenge. First baseman Derrek Lee and third baseman Aramis Ramirez, both of whom have struggled mightily as the expected middle-of-the-order anchors, will be tough to deal due to hefty contracts that don't reflect their eroding skills. Same goes for outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, one of Hendry's personnel missteps who's lost substantial playing time to promising rookie Tyler Colvin in recent weeks. Then there's the curious case of Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs' one-time ace presently serving a team-issued suspension for a dugout blowup in late June. The team would likely be thrilled to rid itself of the volatile right-hander, but chances are the market's pretty dry for a pitcher with a 5.66 ERA and obvious maturity issues who's still owed nearly $38 million over the next two years. Even Chicago's most attractive trade chip, left-hander Ted Lilly, has seen his value plummet after getting roughed up for 16 runs and serving up five homers in his final two starts before the All-Star break. Laying the groundwork for a transition phase won't be an easy task for the Cubs, nor will contending with a frustrated fan base that's endured a lifetime's worth of heartache. But the last 1 1/2 years have proved that the status quo simply isn't good enough for baseball's unluckiest franchise, and a shakeup seems to be the only real recourse.
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Horse Betting(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine). The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late. "You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest. "A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve." When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential: CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped. DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins. PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge. You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike. "You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders." Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of. (By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.) Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout." But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing." Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you." Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front." All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold. In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse. "Now," says Avello, "it's time for action." To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs. American Idol Betting Odds: Season 6 The online gambling websites are in the process of deciphering each American Idol contestant and his or her chances of winning Season 6 to come up with the early American Idol betting lines. Tim Dalton of MySportsbook.com has been locked away in a soundproof room coming up with all the latest tallies, we are told. "American Idol has become one of the most significant betting events of the year," claims Jack Black of MySportsbook.com. "Last year, millions were bet during the season across the globe, not just in America.It's tough early on since we really do not have a glimpse as to how well each of these individuals will perform solo on a week-to-week basis. It's like Week 1 of the NFL. Pre-season means nada! We do know the 24 finalists however. Sanjaya Malakar is the young man whose sister failed to make it into the Top 24. He's very low key but - unless he totally flubs - will probably win over the young girlie vote for a few weeks anyway. He's too young to go all the way, according to Payton O'Brien. Chris Sligh - He's got the humor and in many ways he's the Anti-American Idol much like last year's winner Taylor Hicks was. And this is why he'll probably get pretty far in this competition. He's chubby, white with a big curly afro....but more importantly, a great voice! People love "real", not "real cute" to go all the way. "Blake Lewis should go far because of his uniqueness and looks. He's the boy next store with a twist - he beat boxes. But on top of this, he's a great singer, and I adore him," Payton O'Brien relayed. Paul Kim has caught our own roving reporter, Jenny Woo's eyes. "I love the fact that there is a Korean American on the show and he is bound to get more Asians tuning into the show," Woo said from her Miami Beach estate. "There has never been a major presence of Asian-Americans on American Idol in the past. He's a hottie with a nice voice so that should help to take him far. Expect heavy betting action from the Asian community." Sundance Head - He's not perfect, but he's got the personality that will take him through a few weeks, plus he's got the lineage (son of Roy Head - whose 1965 single, "Treat Her Right," hit No. 5 in the charts) And the others: Alena Alexander - Those tears (she never seems to stop bawling) should get her far. MySportsbook.com is offering a 20% signup bonus with an initial deposit (i.e. open your American Idol betting account with $300, receive another $60 in which to bet with). Last two contestants will be? 1 Male/1 Female +100 (a $10 bet pays $10 plus your initial $10) 2 Males +170 (a $10 bet pays $17 plus your initial $17) 2 Females +130 (a $10 bet pays $13 plus your initial $10) MySportsbook.com is an online sportsbook accepts Visa Credit Cards and online sportsbook accepts Mastercard Credit Cards for easy American Idol betting lines. |
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