CFL East: Trying to separate fact from fiction
Football Betting Lines
07/16/2010 -
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with
each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding
themselves in a division trying to find itself.
A contradicting start to the season has caused some fog in the East, with
pretenders playing contenders, and sleepers, well ... sleeping.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
The Argos woke up before everyone else this week, charging up on a home opener
at the Rogers Centre to upset Calgary and improve to 2-1. Toronto's second
straight win leaves the Boatman alone at the top of the East, and has given
the club some rare wiggle room.
Anytime teams such as the Argos, who have had the league's worst offense and
have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons, realize early success,
proceed with caution.
It's a simple approach to not being fooled by a team's ability to temporarily
suppress bad habits and rise to the occasion. But this Argos team - no matter
the likelihood it has trouble maintaining this early success - is not the
same one as past editions.
New coach Jim Barker has the Double Blue playing a new brand of football, one
that comes from behind and wins close games.
With a quarterback controversy on paper all but erased - for now - former NFL
signal-caller Cleo Lemon has emerged as Barker's man and looks as though he
will be given the opportunity to grow into the game up north.
For the Argos, it's better than going south.
In light of the early game this week, here are Toronto's key players from the
27-24 win over Calgary in Week 3:
Offensive performer: Cory Boyd. Another man benefiting from a new voice
calling the plays has been rookie running back Boyd (20 carries, 142 yards),
who has strung together consecutive 100-yard games.
Defensive/special teams: Kevin Eiben. In his 11th year with the Boatman, Eiben
continues to be a factor on the defensive end. After registering 11 tackles
opening night in Calgary, the linebacker picked off two passes against
Winnipeg in Week 2 and was a big reason the Argos beat Calgary in the second
meeting of the two teams.
Next up: BC Lions. If the Argos can contain the run, the Boatman should
improve to 3-1.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
It would be easy to say the Alouettes are primed to take a step back after a
crushing defeat to open the season and then needing a 15-point fourth quarter
to beat Edmonton. It also would be wrong.
Pedigree aside, the signs are there that perhaps the older the core of this
roster gets, the less the regular season matters.
The defending champs aren't doing things with as much ease this season as in
the past, but a game at BC can turn the situation around quickly.
That's, of course, if your name isn't the Montreal Alouettes. The league's
true power over the last few seasons hasn't fared well in the Lions' Den,
having gone winless at BC since 2001.
Despite their struggles, expect the streak to stop and the Als get back at the
top.
Another thing to expect? Week 3's potential impact players:
Offensive performer: Kerry Watkins. If there's one team who could possibly
stop Watkins, it might just be the Lions. Watkins has 158 yards on eight
catches and three touchdowns this season, but should be in tough against the
league's stingiest defense.
Defense performer: John Bowman. He tied for the league lead in 2009 with
sacks, but the defensive stalwart has been a non-factor this year. Look for
the Lions to wake him up.
Next up: Someone in scheduling likes the Als, given their three-game home
stand
beginning next week against Hamilton. Here come the Alouettes.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
A late comeback by the Toronto Argonauts is the only thing preventing the
Bombers from being atop the East with a chance to go 3-0.
Fortunes weren't so kind to Winnipeg after all, as it squandered a golden
opportunity against Toronto to get an early lead in what is shaping up to be a
competitive division.
Just as few foresaw Hamilton's poor start, the same can be said for the Blue
Bombers, albeit in a more positive light.
After trudging through a couple seasons of mediocrity, new coach Paul LaPolice
must be pleased with what he's been given - an early offensive juggernaut with
the confidence of a playoff team.
Whether they can sustain this type of production on the offensive end (their
scoring differential of plus-18 is good for second in the CFL) will play
itself out as the Bombers' schedule gets tougher.
For now, first-year Bombers quarterback Buck Pierce will likely continue to do
what he's doing (42 of 60 for 657 yards and five touchdowns), giving Winnipeg
a chance to outscore any opponent on any given night.
Offensive performer: Buck Pierce. After throwing to the other team more than
his own last season (12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns), Pierce seems to have
found a comfort zone in Winnipeg. If that's not enough, he completed 68
percent of his passes with two TDs and a 133.9 QB rating in Week 1 versus
Hamilton, who the Bombers play again this week.
Defensive/special teams: Jovon Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the
cornerback out of the University of Iowa has proved to be a sparkplug on the
defensive end. Johnson, who picked off CFL quarterbacks six times last year,
has been solid on special teams in 2010, returning 14 punts for a total of 114
yards.
Next up: First their rematch with Hamilton and then home to face Edmonton.
Winnipeg must take advantage of this weak stretch before the schedule gets
tougher.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
The Ti-Cats can't move any further down the standings, but they can move
further away from the pack.
Although Hamilton remains winless and at the bottom of the East, there's
reason to believe it can still turn this season around and mimic the
contending team that many predicted in the preseason.
After a tough loss on the road in Week 1 against an inspired Winnipeg squad,
Hamilton didn't show up for the second half last week against Calgary and now
must navigate through a tough part of the schedule.
Offensive performer: Kevin Glenn followed up a dismal opener in carving up the
Stampeders' secondary for 356 yards on 26-of-34 passing.
Defensive/special teams: About the only bright spot for Hamilton this year has
been the steady play of linebacker Jamall Johnson, whose size and
speed creates havoc for offensive players in the middle. His 18 tackles lead
the league and should help shrink the field for Pierce and the Bombers'
offense this week.
Next up: After Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats hit the road for back-to-back contests
versus Montreal and Saskatchewan. Suddenly, Week 3 is looking like a must-win
for Hamilton.
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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
Bet 2010 Super Bowl Odds
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
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NFL Football Betting Online
In terms of sports wagering, the NFL is "the most popular game in town." The explanation behind that is easy.
It is called the "pointspread."
Many years ago, NFL games, as well as the more popular college games, used straight odds as a vehicle for betting. For example, if the Bears were playing the Giants, and it shaped up as a competitive contest, the Bears might be, say, a 7/5 favorite. If they were playing an also-ran, it might be 10/1. Well, there is a point where a line becomes prohibitive, as far as betting the favorite. And who would waste money betting an underdog that has virtually no chance? Such a setup did not contribute to promoting betting action.
But in modern sports betting, a "pointspread" is used.
A NFL pointspreads are exactly that, a pre-established point difference between the two sides that will, for all intents and purposes, create a handicap that evens things out, and in doing so, produces comparable wagering activity on both sides of that proposition. So in lieu of a odds figure in which to bet the team to win outright, the Bears might be a three-point favorite over the New York Giants, and a 17-point favorite over the also-ran. Now that the team that is the underdog can "get" points, there can be equal action on both sides.
In sportsbooks, this is usually done with efficiency by charging the losing bettors 10% extra - in effect, bettors are laying 11/10 on those games. So they are actually betting $110 to win $100. If they lose, they pay the "vig." If they win, they simply collect.
The establishment of the pointspread as the corner stone around which team sports like football can be wagered upon was truly what brought gridiron betting into the stratosphere for online football betting .
Don't believe it? Just take a look at what happens around the Super Bowl.
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